French construction: new measures to come
“Everything is on the table”. That is what Sylvia Pinel, Ministry of Housing, told “Le Figaro” about which measures she is considering to revive French construction. Steps taken could include changing...
View ArticleSaint Gobain: another 50% upside
As Euroconstruct published its revised estimates on the European construction sector, we deem it worthwhile to re-hash our thesis on construction. Euroconstruct revised modestly its estimates for...
View ArticlePMIs were a little weaker in Europe. France the culprit but detail still...
PMIs were a little weaker in Europe. The main culprit France. Importantly forward looking indicators were robust with the composite new orders index up 0.3pt to 53.0, which is a new recovery high. We...
View ArticleSaint Gobain: another 50% upside
Another poor PMI print for France (yesterday) which we believe will spur further action from the Ministry of Housing. Just a fortnight ago Sylvia Pinel told “Le Figaro” that “everything is on the...
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St. Gobain
Sometime today we should learn what measures the French will take to encourage construction. We expect the 0% loan will be revamped, norms in construction will be simplified, and public land will be...
View ArticleFrench construction: positive developments
New measures for construction in France have been leaked. Some details are in the following article (in French). In summary measures include; subsidized lending for helping new property owners (old...
View ArticleFrance construction: ‘Help to buy’ extended
As discussed, the recently announced housing stimulus measures should benefit French construction stocks, not least St Gobain. Tax credits for energy-efficient renovation measures will benefit them...
View ArticleFrench construction
We have had a significant boost to French Construction stocks last week with the government announcing stimulus measures, perhaps the most significant is the expanding remit of the Help to Buy scheme....
View ArticleOrange
On May 23rd we wrote the following. We stand by it now. “Orange has experienced a tremendous rerating on expectations of consolidation in France. See charts here: http://www.aviatelive.com/tag/orange/...
View ArticleFrench reform (cont). Key event today
As the economy continues to stutter and their leaders popularity craters, the need for change has seldom been greater. We believe the Hollande U-turn in January is more than just rhetoric and the...
View ArticleRobert Walters good numbers and positive insights for Europe
Trading in Europe was robust with the Benelux region continuing to perform well. Permanent recruitment activity levels in France remained relatively subdued but “contract grew strongly”. Contract work...
View ArticleSt. Gobain, long term view remains the same
We have a small presentation as to why we see the current pull-back is an opportunity (call if you would like it). Yes France is poor, but that should not surprise and an action plan for improvement...
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European recovery (cont)
The European services PMI has made new recovery highs today, coming in at 55.4, an acceleration from 52.8 and ahead of estimates. We read this as indicating domestic demand within Europe is holding up,...
View ArticleEuropean recovery (cont): ECB Lending survey, moving in the right direction
The ECB July Lending Survey (Q2) shows credit standards for all loan categories eased in Q2 this year. Of key importance is that for the first time since Q2 2007 banks are easing credit standards on...
View ArticleSt Gobain: use weakness to add
Saint Gobain reported EBIT ~2% better than consensus for H1. Q2 sales were below expectations on lower volumes, up 0.5% YoY (but +1.4% at constant working days), but prices were still up 1.1% YoY,...
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French Construction: Stimulus coming? Buy Saint Gobain
Reuters is reporting that there will be further stimulus coming in France over the next few days as Hollande desperately tries to turn around not only the French economy but also his abysmal approval...
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French Reform: moving forward
We mentioned possible new French stimulus yesterday and this morning Hollande confirms as much saying he will speed up current reforms as well as launching a plan to boost house building. Interestingly...
View ArticleFrance: Composite PMI back above 50
France data released today shows that Composite PMI is back above the important 50 level, signalling a return to expansion. Add in potential reforms and stimulus (see Hollande’s comments yesterday)...
View ArticleFrench reform (cont)
French PM Manuel Valls has asserted his authority on his government by getting Arnaud Montebourg and Benoit Hamon, whom were dissenting on his economic choices, to resign from the government. No one...
View ArticleFrench reform: more change coming
French newspaper Liberation has published an exchange of emails between the Prime Minister Valls’ office and other ministers. The exchange shows that Valls is going to act quickly on construction. It...
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